Anthony’s STANLEY CUP PREVIEW!

Well, today is the day. A season that started back on October 7^th with 32 teams is now 8 months later down to only 2 teams. A best of 7 series for the most prestigious trophy in sports. The favored Vegas Golden Knights vs the postseason Cinderella Florida Panthers. While the Knights series in the western conference finals went a few extra games than Florida’s did it never really seemed like that series was in doubt. Vegas opened a 3-0 series lead and despite dropping games 4 and 5 they won game 6 by a convincing score of 6-0. The Panthers will be coming off a 10-day layoff after finishing their Eastern Conference Finals sweep of the Carolina Hurricanes back on May 24th. Some may wonder if this is just too much time off and I must say I think the rest will have been welcomed by the Panthers. Even though their series only went to 4 games they played a total of 17 periods of hockey in those 4 games. That factored in with Sergei Bobrovsky playing the Panthers’ last 888 minutes and 34 seconds of hockey over 28 days seems like a welcomed chance at rest. “BOB” has always performed better throughout his career with extra rest. As for the Knights goalie on the other side, Aidan Hill has a better GAA and SV% than “BOB” over the entire postseason he has done this while playing in 3 fewer games for 288 fewer minutes and facing 171 fewer shots. Let’s break down some stats for each team.

Stanley Cup Finals Vegas Golden Knights vs Florida Panthers

Advantages

We will break down each portion of these teams and see who has the advantage.

Forwards – slight advantage Vegas

I went back and forth on this one a lot. Both teams have extremely strong forward depth with very gritty 4^th lines. Vegas probably does a better job of rolling all 4 lines while Florida opts to play their lines a little bit looser allowing for stretches with different combos. The top 9 depth with both these teams is extraordinary. It is hard to give either team the advantage in this way due to how these lines balance. Vegas has gotten better production from the Eichel-Barbashev-Marchessault line, but Florida has what has been in my opinion the toughest line in the playoffs in Tkachuk-Cousins-Bennett. I will give Vegas the slight edge here, especially with how their scoring is more spread out amongst their top 9 forwards, but this edge is minimal at best.

Defense – clear advantage Vegas

In terms of offense for these defensive units, I would give Florida the advantage as they are far more likely to have guys like Ekblad, Forsling, and Montour be heavily involved in the O-zone. However, in terms of actual defensive play Vegas clearly has the better group. Vegas is 6 deep on defense and really balances their minutes when those 6 are healthy with even their bottom pair playing over 18 minutes per game. They do a tremendous job of either blocking shots outright or giving Hill a clear view of where the shot is coming from. Florida also does an excellent job of this, but their bottom pair is built more on physicality than defense.

Goaltending – clear advantage Florida

I know I talked about Hill having the better overall stats but that’s not really looking at the whole picture. Sergei Bobrovsky just posted the 3^rd best conference finals sv% of any goalie in NHL history. His run since game 7 of the Bruins series is among the greatest goaltending stretches EVER. If “Bob” can keep his playoff SV% where it is currently after game 1, he will be one of only 11 goalies in NHL HISTORY to hold a .935 sv% through 15 playoff starts in a single postseason. Yes, Hill has been very good, but “BOB” has been historic.

Coaching – clear advantage Florida

Again, not everyone will agree, but Paul Maurice has done something with this team that is not seen often. Taking an 8th seed to the Stanley Cup final. He is trying to do what the 2012 Los Angeles Kings did. The Kings that year got in on the last day of the season (just like Florida) and proceeded to beat the 1st 2nd and 3rd seeds in their conference. Florida has beaten the 1st, 4th, and 2nd seeds thus far in their conference and now takes on the 1st seed from the opposing conference. In Maurice’s introductory press conference, he said that he didn’t want to “put mud tires on a Ferrari” in terms of their offensive play but that they also needed to “learn to drive in the rain”. He also talked about spending most of the season figuring out the smartest way for them to play. Well as of March 29th, they found it. Since then, they are 18-6 with a +23-goal differential. Just for the sake of comparing that goal differential prorated over a full season would have been the 2nd best in all of hockey behind only the Boston Bruins (whom they beat in round 1). They have committed to dumping the puck into the offensive zone and then aggressive forechecking causing opposing teams to turn the puck over on their end. No team in hockey over this stretch has more goals off turnovers in 5 on 5-than Florida. This is Maurice’s system finally showing face after a year largely spent with them playing as they did under Andrew Brunette in their Presidents Trophy-winning 2021-2022 campaign. What we are witnessing is the reason the Panthers felt comfortable moving on from a Presidents trophy-winning coach in Brunette to hire Maurice. Bruce Cassidy is a great coach in his own right. This will be his 2^nd trip as a coach to the Stanley Cup Final after taking Boston there in 2018-2019 where they lost to St. Louis in 7 games.

Final Take

I think this will be a much more competitive series than either Conference final matchup was. Obviously, both teams will need some things to go their way if they want to win but after looking at the whole picture, I am leaning Florida on this one. The goaltending of “BOB” paired with the overall toughness, and relenting attack this team has shown throughout the playoffs just make me feel they will be too much for Vegas when it is all said and done. I am taking Florida in 6.