Anthony leads the charge for PCP in our NHL Playoff Preview!

by Anthony Raso,

Here we are after 6 long months of regular season hockey we have finally arrived at the quest for Lord Stanley’s Cup. Games kick off tonight and before they get started, I wanted to give anyone who isn’t caught up a primer on the seasons these teams had and the matchups they are about to face.

Bruins vs Panthers

Is it possible to say that the best team (record-wise) in NHL history has drawn a tough matchup? I guess we can call it as close to a tough matchup as it could get for this team. The Panthers were one of only 2 teams this year to beat the Bruins twice (the Senators were the other). Now while on the surface that could look like a whole lot of nothing some might like to double-check just to be sure. Paul Maurice-coached teams are notorious for their gritty dump-and-chase style of offense. A style that can really cause wear on teams and in a 7-game series like this especially when the physicality in a series is turned up as happens in the playoffs. As I touched on in my last article this Panthers team has really played with an edge since the Paul Maurice bench explosion on March 23rd. Around that same time, their toughness was also questioned by Panthers forward Matthew Tkachuk’s father Keith Tkachuk, who went as far as to call the team soft. Since then, the team has improved its physicality dramatically. They have started checking more going from averaging 21.1 hits per night to 23.8 on average giving the hits 3.4 times more per game over this stretch. Factoring this in with the dump-and-chase offense and ramped-up physicality of the playoffs, the door is slightly ajar. Of course, the Bruins on the other hand don’t give up points. Their 2.03 Goals against average as a team is the lowest mark by any team since the 2002-2003 Flyers and Devils both hit 2.02. They scored the 2nd most goals in the league this year and were +127 in goal differential. This Bruins team doesn’t have many weaknesses on paper. They score, they defend, and they have superb goaltending. However, we have seen movies like this before, haven’t we? Going back to 1995 we have seen 7 teams cross 120 points in a season. Of those prior 6 teams (not counting this year’s Boston team) none won the Stanley Cup, none even made it to the Stanley Cup and only 1 even made the Conference Final (95-96 Red Wings). Oh, and Bruins Coach Jim Montgomery announced today that they are unsure if Linus Ullmark will start game 1, and that Patrice Bergeron is also dealing with some sort of bug. Do with that information what you will all I am saying is once the NHL Playoffs start anything is possible.

Tail of the tape

My Pick

Listen as amazing of a feel-good story as it would be to see these Panthers go on a tear and knock off the greatest team in NHL history (record-wise) I do struggle to see it. The Panthers lack the defense to keep up with Boston’s relentless waves of offense and while getting physical may work with some teams this Boston team is no pushover.

Bruins in 5

Oilers vs Kings

Just before the trade deadline, the Kings sat on top of the western conference while the Oilers were a team holding a wild card spot but still fighting for their playoff lives. A lot has changed since then. The Oilers have been the best team in hockey since and the Kings have faltered some dropping to 3rd in the Pacific Division. The reward for these teams is a 1st round showdown versus one another. We don’t need to dive too far into what the Oilers are right? A high-powered high scoring team that boasted the best power play percentage in NHL history this year (32.4%). The defense, however, is what has really helped turn their season around. They have improved in terms of goals allowed per game over this period enabling them to be more balanced and not try to just outscore their problems. For the Kings, injuries have hurt them of late. Kevin Fiala has only played in 9 games since February 25th and is uncertain for the start of the series although it has been stated that he and Gabe Vilardi will both travel with the team to Edmonton for games 1 and 2. Vilardi hasn’t played since March 26th. The goaltending has been improved since they acquired Joonas Korpisalo from Columbus at the deadline but it’s not entirely clear if Korpisalo or Phoenix Copley will be leading this team in the net to start the series. The Oilers are riding high coming in 9-0-1 in their last 10 while the Kings are just 5-5-0. While the teams split the season series 2-2 the Oilers won both matchups post-trade deadline.

Tail of the tape

My Pick

It feels impossible to pick against this Oilers team with the way they’ve played of late. We saw Connor McDavid and a 1-legged Leon Draisaitl drag this team to the Western Conference Finals last year and they seem like a much-improved team since then. Too many questions around the Kings for me to confidently take them here.

Oilers in 5

Stars vs Wild

It feels like in a normal year we would be talking about the Stars in a much different light. If not for McDavid, Jason Robertson would be a real contender for the Hart Trophy and if not for Linus Ullmark Jake Oettinger would be talked about at the least as a Vezina Finalist. Neither of those things is really happening and that shouldn’t take away from the incredible seasons these players have had. For the Wild, it was huge to get Kirill Kaprizov back just before the end of the season but losing Joel Eriksson Ek right before the playoffs is a huge blow. They also are without Oskar Sundqvist for the first-round matchup as well. Also, the Wild seems like another team with uncertainty about who will be in the net for this series. While most would see Marc-Andre Fleury’s name on the roster and instantly assume it’s him he has been outplayed by 24-year-old net miner Filip Gustavsson for essentially the whole year. Would the Wild make the switch? Probably not for the start of the series at least. Rookie Matt Boldy will be walking into the playoffs RED HOT scoring 23 points over his last 20 games 15 of which were goals. The biggest question for me in this series will be if the Wild can muster enough firepower to keep up with this Stars team which ranked 7^th on the year in goals.

Tail of the tape

My Pick

I do think barring an Eriksson Ek comeback the Wild may just be a little short in the offensive department to keep up with Dallas BUT Kaprizov is a special offensive talent who could carry a team. I do feel it won’t be enough, but this is going to be a battle of a series that I could easily see going the full 7.

Stars in 7

Hurricanes vs Islanders

What an odd situation it turned into for the Canes at the end of the year. In the last game of the season, they faced off against the Florida Panthers. If they lost that game the Panthers would have been the 1^st wild card team and played the winner of the Metro division. One would think Carolina would have taken that game to rest some starters and look forward to playing the Panthers in round 1. HOWEVER, due to some losses down the stretch, the Canes needed to win that game (or a Devils loss in their last game) to win the Metro. So the Canes threw the kitchen sink at Florida, came away with a win, and now draw the Islanders in round 1. The Canes did dominate the season series 3-1 which should give the team some confidence heading into this matchup however only one of those wins came after the season-ending injury to Andrei Svechnikov and the Islanders’ February trade for Bo Horvat. The Islanders have been a much better team since the Bo Horvat trade. Since he first suited up for the Isles on February 6th the team is 17-9-4, good for the 5th most points of any Eastern Conference team over that stretch. They went from scoring 2.84 goals a game and allowing 2.71 without Horvat to scoring 3.13 and allowing 2.53 with him. They are one of the more physical teams in the League. They were 5th in the league in hits while Carolina ranked 30th. Yes, Carolina has more skill players, but this is playoff hockey where no goals come easy and the Canes without Svechnikov have gone from 3.38 goals per game with him to just 2.72 without. They are also just 9-8-1 since the injury. Of all the wild card matchups it really feels like this one has the highest possibility of an upset.

Tail of the tape

My Pick

Ok, the first one I am diving off the deep end on. Ilya Sorokin – learn his name because he is going to be the MVP of this series for the Isles. They have the type of game that is going to give the Canes a really tough time and that factored with Sorokin’s Vezina-caliber play makes this one a little easier for me.

Islanders in 6

Maple Leafs vs Lightning

Oh boy, are we in for an interesting series here? Last year these 2 teams also faced off in round 1 in a series that went 7 games and came down to the end with the Lighting edging out the Leafs 2-1 and winning the series 4-3. This year these teams are limping into the playoffs. The Leafs won’t have Matt Murray for the start of the series, Jake Muzzin’s early season injury means he won’t be playing at all this year while a host of other Maple Leafs are banged up or just returning from injuries. For the Lighting, only 1 player is expected to be out and that’s Tanner Jeannot, but they also have a rash of players banged up challenging their depth. The regular season series went to the Leafs who won 2 of 3 games vs Tampa. The Lighting is also coming into the playoffs on one of their worst stretches in nearly a decade having gone 4-8-0 over their last 12 and 17-17-5 over their last 39 games. Meanwhile, Toronto comes in having won 4 straight. Could this really be the end of the line for this Lighting run? Obviously, 3 straight trips to the Stanley Cup are going to wear on a team that factored in losing a true leader like Ryan Mcdonagh this past off-season. One must wonder if this could FINALLY be the year Toronto makes it out of round 1. However, this is the Maple Leafs, the same team that HASN’T made it out of round 1 since 2003-2004.

Tail of the tape

My Pick

Man, history says you just pick Tampa and move on but watching Tampa the last few months something clearly seems off. Is it something that will just correct itself come playoff time? I have my doubts. For Toronto goalie is still a major concern as well. I don’t like this one at all. With all that said though I am leaning toward Toronto here. Clearly, Tampa doesn’t have the dominant defense they have had in the past and while the offense is still good, they just seem out of sync. Let’s also not forget that the winner of this series likely gets Boston in the next round. Yikes!!

Maple Leafs in 7

Devils vs Rangers

The East really does seem like a gauntlet this year, no? This is another east matchup that I do not like picking at all. I have been extremely high on the Rangers since the deadline and while they have been good, they haven’t hit their ceiling and one has to wonder if they will be able to come playoff time. Since February 1^st, these teams have held almost identical records with the Rangers at 20-8-5 and the Devils at 20-9-4. The Devils did take the season series 3-1 but all but one of these games were decided by only 1 goal and 2 went to overtime. Also, only 1 of those games came with the Rangers having Tarasenko and Kane in the lineup. Obviously seems like the playoff experience the Rangers have should give them an edge in this series but it’s not that clear cut. This Devils team is really good. As shown by them ranking 5^th in goals scored and 8^th in goals allowed. The battle that will now wage through the Holland Tunnel with these teams is sure to be a fun one.

Tail of the tape

My Pick

I struggle with finding a way this series doesn’t go 7 games. Obviously, anytime a series goes to a game 7 all bets are off but in this particular scenario I do believe the Rangers’ advantage in overall playoff experience is going to pay off for them.

Rangers in 7

Golden Knights vs Jets

The Jets are a very odd team to be in this scenario. It seems they have some major changes coming in the off-season. Pierre-Luc Dubois has made it noticeably clear he would like to end up in Montreal, Mark Scheifele has made it seem like he is not interested in staying in Winnipeg long term as well. Despite all this, the team found a way to ride Goaltending horse Connor Hellebuyck to a playoff berth. With that, they get to face the best in the west Golden Knights. The Knights pulled off their usual salary cap trickery as Mark Stone has spent the last few months on the LTIR allowing the team to spend some extra cap space they would not have normally had and now with the playoffs approaching, he has returned to practice. While I have some doubts he will play early in this series (if at all) it certainly feels like he will make an appearance at some point this postseason. Obviously in playoff hockey a hot goaltender and solid defense can really carry a team and the Jets could fit that description. The Knights on the other hand have managed with a true hodgepodge of goalies to be just as good as Winnipeg in that department. The Jets were one of the best teams in the west the first half of the year and really fell apart down the stretch not clinching their playoff birth till game 81. The Knights are clicking 22-4-5 over their last 31 games I just think they overpower Winnipeg here.

Tail of the tape

My Pick

This series may end up closer than some realize but Winnipeg just doesn’t seem that good. I could certainly eat these words if Hellebuyck stands on his head 4 times over their next 7 but I don’t see it.

Knights in 6

Avalanche vs Kraken

What a great feel-good story this Kraken team has been this year. Their 2^nd year in the league and after taking quite a bit of heat last year for some questionable picks in the expansion draft here they are in the playoffs with a 100-point season. Getting career years from Jared McCann, as well as a few others, and with a sky-high team shooting percentage they must have a good shot against the Avs right? Well, you see the sky-high shooting percentage is not something that is usually sustainable even from some of the best players in the league, and 11.6% as a team ranks them 2nd in the league behind only Edmonton and ahead of Boston. Seems odd, no? Well, the puck luck as they say has been on their side in this department this year. The key difference being while Jared McCann led the Kraken in goals the Bruins and Oilers have players like McDavid, Draisaitl, Marchand, and Pastarnak. Expecting that to hold up against a strong imposing team like Colorado is hard to see. Colorado obviously got some terrible news recently that team Captain Gabriel Landeskog will not be making it back for the postseason and while this is terrible news for them as a team it shouldn’t play a large role in the outcome of this series. Both teams can score but the Avs having Makar back (supposedly) and MacKinnon clicking is probably just too much firepower for this Kraken team.

Tail of the tape

My Pick

As great of a story as Seattle this Avs team is tough and has done this before. They are reigning champions for a reason and while I don’t exactly think they are going to win it all again this year I feel confident the Kraken are not the team that can send them home.

Avalanche in 5

Staff Picks

In Summary

We should be in for a fantastic playoff. Some great matchups even right off the bat here in round 1. I think the two I am most looking forward to will be Kings/Oilers and Rangers/Devils. Also some great storylines like Boston’s historic Season and the epic Lighting v Leafs rivalry. I will be locked in starting tonight.

As always, I hope everyone enjoys these. I would love to hear some feedback from everyone or even just some ordinary questions that I would be happy to answer.